Tetlock Superforecasting · 18-Month Horizon

SAP API Policy Forecast

"What is the probability that SAP's API policy will allow third-party AI access under defined commercial terms within 18 months?"
SAP API Policy Official policy document (PDF)
SAP API Policy FAQs Common questions answered
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Outcome probabilities
Outcome A
Broad commercial open — third-party AI via governed SAP terms
42%
Outcome B
Selective access — strategic partners, managed gateways, limited commercial terms
38%
Outcome C
Block maintained — no meaningful third-party AI access
20%
② SAP's API policy Drivers
+0%
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Official policy + FAQ keep published APIs as the safe path
-9%
The clearest near-term signal is restrictive language on non-published APIs and documented use only.
-15% 0%
Existing integrations are not being abruptly broken
+5%
SAP repeatedly says it will prioritize monitoring and dialogue over hard enforcement for existing use cases.
0% +12%
MCP Gateway / A2A / Architecture Center are endorsed access lanes
+8%
SAP is creating a managed path for agentic access, which increases odds of commercialized third-party usage.
0% +15%
Integration certification refresh favors partner-led paths
-3%
This supports selective, strategic access more than broad third-party openness.
-12% 0%
Third-party self-managed MCP remains accepted, not preferred
0%
This keeps the door open, but the transcript clearly steers users toward managed offerings.
-10% +10%
Market forces base rate 52%
SAP internal drivers adjustment +0%
Outcome A — broad commercial open (18 months) 42%
History — saved forecast snapshots
No history yet.
① Market Forces — Historical base rate  fixed at 52%
Reference class from comparable platform restriction episodes. Not adjustable — historical record only.
SAP API policy v4/2026
Published APIs are safe; non-published access is restricted or at-own-risk.
-10%
MCP Gateway rollout and Architecture Center
SAP is creating a managed path for agentic access rather than a fully open one.
+9%
Integration certification refresh
Strategic partner alignment improves odds of selective commercial access.
+4%
Existing integrations grandfathering
SAP says it will avoid breaking current customer flows, lowering the chance of a sudden hard clampdown.
+3%